Initial Jobless Claims & The Long-Term Unemployed

The initial jobless claims this week were a disappointment vs. forecast.  As you can see from the chart below it looks like the jobless claims may be heading higher after a somewhat steady decline since the heights of the great recession.

According to the release this week initial jobless claims are still high, a trend that overshadows a 1,000 decline in the April 21 week. The level of 388,000 is nearly 15,000 more than expected while the prior week, at 389,000, is revised 3,000 higher for a nearly four-month high. The four-week average continues its upward pivot, at 381,750 for a third straight gain of 6,250. This average is trending nearly 15,000 higher vs March which is a tangibly negative signal for the April employment report.



Besides an increase in jobless claims another concern that continues to be a the forefront of the economy is the plight of the long-term unemployed (those out of work for more than a year).  The PEW Fiscal Analysis Initiative examined this very issue and tried to quantify the impacts on the economy with this piece here.

In an updated analysis the PEW initiative look at the following 5 questions
1.   How long have the unemployed been jobless?



2. Who are the unemployed?


3. Who are the long-term unemployed?


4. Where are the long-term unemployed?


5. Are workers being laid off permanently?