Wednesday, May 2, 2012

ADP Numbers Disappoint, Precursor for Friday?

Was today's ADP release a precursor for another bad unemployment report this Friday?  The ADP Report indicated a gain of 119k jobs vs. a consensus estimate of 183k.  Although the ADP report has never been a good indicator of the BLS jobs number it does give one reason to be cautious heading into Friday.

With the market down right off the bat today but then closing strong to pair loses, I actually held off on taking some additional positions in the wake of this poor employment report.  My thinking is if the jobs number does disappoint again for the second straight month it could be a blood letting Friday in the equity markets.  This is a risk I simply do not want to take.  Better to have continued patience this time around.

[Chart]

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