And like any good streak it ended this week with the fund down 0.5% vs. week 9. The major markets did sell off this past week on Tuesday but then came roaring back fulling regaining all of the loses. The dip did not last even a full day! It was also the first week in the last several where the Russell 2000 index handily bested the DJIA, NASDAQ, and S&P 500. Most people had been seeing this breakdown as a sign of weakness in the markets and something had to give. This week the Russell gave busting higher.
What really did the fund in this week were two names SodaStream $SODA and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters $GMCR. I'll start with $GMCR which was down almost 16% on Friday when news came out that Starbucks $SBUX would be producing their own single cup brewing machine to compete against the market leader GMCR who produces the Keurig. Here is a link to some further details surrounding the announcement. Bottom line GMCR generates much of it's income from selling the k-cups which it still has a partnership with Starbucks. The new $SBUX machine is a higher end product focused on espresso. I don't have a clear answer as to why $SODA was down 14% week over week except that people may be loosing their appetite for the stock. In any case $GMCR looks extremely oversold to me and I will look at picking up additional shares this week while I will likely wait to figure out what is going on with $SODA.
When you look at full year results we are solidly up 16.5% and still head of the other domestic indices. This is a good point to stop and remind everyone that although we post weekly performance and talk about specific trades the focus of the fund is still long-term. As I detailed in a few posts this week [March 8, 2012 The Cancer of Debts and Deficits] and [March 9, 2012 Seth Klarmans 2011 Investor Letter] most fund managers tie themselves to indices instead of possibly making better moves out of fear of being fired. I do what I think is best based on our research and long-term strategies. In the short-term markets can take us on wild swings going from one extreme to another which places a greater significance on knowing what your strategy is long-term. This certainly doesn't mean buy and hold, quite the contrary. It means having conviction to make calls which can be both good and bad but having a strategy in mind which you believe will perform well in the long-term both in good and bad markets.
This week our only move was to cut the losses on our First Solar $FSLR option position. I really thought that the alternative energy space would take off but it seems like it is going to take longer than I and others had expected. There is also the issue with these types of investments regarding the subsidies they receive and any government loans. There seems to be a growing dislike of the government trying to play venture capitalist and I concur for the most part with that sentiment. However without some government funding there are some industries and companies that would never be able to get off of the ground. The solar and other areas of alternative energy may prove to be a great space to be in but for now they are not and I have no timetable to know when that may occur so we will watch from the sidelines for now.
The Week Ahead
This week could get pretty dicey as Friday we reported a solid jobs number at the beginning of the day only to end with Greece officially defaulting on it's debt. I had someone ask me what this would mean and I really didn't have a good answer as this is the first time a sovereign government has defaulted on their debts where they did not control their own currency and second of all it seems like it has already been priced into the markets. The focus late Friday was already turning to the next troubled Euro countries such as Portugal and Spain. I believe that these countries are a much bigger deal as there economies are bigger and have a greater amount of absolute debt. For what it's worth Friday also marked the 3 year anniversary of the bottoming of the financial markets in the wake of the great recession, financial crisis, or any other name you would like to call it.
- Mon - N/A
- Tue - FMOC Meeting Announcement, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Retail Sales
- Wed - Import/Export Prices
- Thu - PPI, Empire State Mfg Survey
- Fri - CPI, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment
Have a great week!
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