To buy or not to buy?

So what are people to do when it comes to the decision of buying or not buying a new house?  The WSJ pitted two people on opposite sides of this equation.  I have gone through the article here and came up with the pro's and con's from the opposing sides

To Buy - from Eric Lascelles, chief economist at money-management firm RBC Global Asset Management Inc.

• This is still a remarkable time to be a first-time home buyer. Affordability is the best it has been in 30 years, thanks to the combination of a 34% decline in prices since the 2006 peak and a historically low 4% average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage.
• The two affordability metrics that truly matter are how much monthly income a mortgage consumes, and whether this is less costly than renting. On the first count, I calculate that home prices are now an astonishing one-third cheaper than the historical norm. On the second, real-estate website Trulia figures that buying is cheaper than renting in 98 out of America's 100 major markets. That is practically a clean sweep.
• Here's a dirty little secret about recessions: They aren't bad for everyone. They can even be downright beneficial if played right. Roughly one in 30 Americans is unemployed as a result of the financial crisis. The rest have sidestepped this blow, and what's more have been given the gift of extraordinarily low interest rates.
• While the economy remains very fragile, it has become less so since the fall. Still, say the worst happens—you buy a home and then immediately lose your job: The foreclosure backlog provides breathing room, and there is ample evidence that the newly unemployed are regarded preferentially by employers over the poor souls in long-term unemployment purgatory.
• Could home prices fall further? Yes they could. The home-inventory overhang is still quite large and credit availability remains poor. Home prices are unlikely to bloom in earnest for quite some time. But inventories are finally shrinking and mortgage availability has at least stabilized, and if you wind up buying a house on sale for one-third off its fair value instead of discounted by 40%, you still got one heck of a deal.

Not to Buy - Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm in Springfield, N.J

• Don't buy your first house now unless you're willing to lose 20% of its market value in the next several years. Maybe more.
• It will take a 22% drop to return median single-family house prices to the trend identified by Robert Shiller of Yale University that stretches back to the 1890s and prevailed until the housing bubble began. (It adjusts for inflation and the tendency of houses to get bigger over time.) And corrections usually overshoot on the downside just as bubbles do on the upside.
• The problem is excess inventories. They are the mortal enemy of prices, and we've calculated an excess of two million housing units, over and above normal working levels of inventories of new and existing homes. That is huge, considering that before the housing market collapsed, about 1.5 million new homes were being built annually, a figure that shrank to 568,000 in February. At current rates of housing starts and household formation, it will take four years to work off the excess inventory, plenty of time for those surplus houses to drag down prices.
• Excess inventories, of course, were spawned by the earlier housing boom, which was driven by a host of factors—including low interest rates, almost nonexistent lending standards and government attempts to put even those who couldn't afford chicken coops into four-bedroom houses. But most of all, the housing bubble was driven by the conviction that home prices never fall—they hadn't on a nationwide basis since the 1930s—so any bad purchase would eventually be reversed.
• Additionally, our inventory estimate doesn't even include future foreclosures, some five million of which are waiting in the wings. The 49% drop in new foreclosures since the second quarter of 2009 is a mirage, and was partly due to the Obama administration pressuring mortgage lenders to try to modify troubled mortgages to keep people in their homes. (They were largely unsuccessful.) Then lenders refrained from foreclosing to avoid even more bad PR during the robo-signing flap that highlighted inadequate foreclosure procedures.
• Sure, the always optimistic National Association of Realtors tells you that based on mortgage rates, incomes and house prices, single-family houses have never been more affordable. But according to their index, that was also true in December 2008, and prices have fallen 9.2% since then. Ugh! Home prices may have dropped 34% since the peak in early 2006, but that doesn't make them cheap if prices continue to decline.
• Yes, apartment rental rates are rising and vacancies are falling, but by past standards, house prices remain high relative to rents. But even if homeownership was cheaper than renting, as some claim, buying a house now would be a disastrous investment if prices fall another 20% or more.
• The homeownership dream of an appreciating asset and huge ATM has been replaced by the nightmare of a liability that is expensive to own and falling in value. Act accordingly.