Here is the full Mauldin piece by Bremmer
- In short, it’s a world without leadership. That’s unfortunate, because at a time when so many problems transcend borders—from regional conflicts to climate change and threats to global market stability to cyber-attacks, terrorism, and the security of food and water—the need for international cooperation has never been greater. Cooperation demands leadership. Leaders have the leverage to coordinate multinational responses to transnational problems. They have the wealth and power to persuade other governments to take actions they wouldn’t otherwise take. They pick up the checks that others can’t afford and provide services no one else will pay for. Leaders set the agenda.
- But nor are rising powers like China, India, Brazil, Turkey, the Gulf Arabs and others ready to take up the slack. For emerging nations, emergence is a full-time job. The governments of these countries still face complex development challenges that demand too many resources and too much time, energy, attention, and money to accept major new risks and burdens abroad.
- If not the West, the rest, or the institutions where they come together, who will lead? The answer is, no one. Neither the once-dominant G7 nor the unworkable G20. We have entered the G-Zero, a world in which, for the first time since the end of World War II, there is no single power or alliance of powers ready to take on global leadership.
- A world without leaders will undermine our ability to keep the peace, expand opportunity, reverse the impact of climate change, and feed growing populations. Its effects will have implications for our politics, business, information, communication, security, food, air and water. It will be felt in every region of the world—and even in cyberspace.
- Every era has its winners and losers, and the G-Zero will be no different. It is not merely strength but adaptability and resilience that are the attributes most likely to produce prosperity in a G-Zero world. Countries that have choices among political, security and commercial partners are much better able to navigate a world that generates shocks from unexpected directions.
- The shape of the post-G-Zero global order will depend on the answer to two questions. First, will
- relations between America and China be defined mainly by competition and conflict or by complementary interests? Second, will these two countries dominate international politics or can a variety of other states play an independent and influential global role? I see five broad scenarios:
- A G2 world in which common interests lead US and Chinese leaders mainly to collaborate
- A workable G20 order in which the G-Zero has generated so much trouble that governments are forced to work together to ensure political and economic stability
- A “Cold War 2.0” scenario in which the new order is defined by US-Chinese conflict
- Regionalization of international politics, in which America remains the only global power but in which local heavyweights call most of the shots within their respective neighborhoods
- A disintegration scenario that I call “G-Subzero” in which fragmentation within powerful countries limits the ability of national governments to govern
- So what can America’s next president, Obama or Romney, and the country’s next Congress do about all this? They can accept that the world is changed, that this is not 1960, and that, at least for the time being, the architects of American foreign policy must learn to do more with less. More importantly, they can build a foreign policy that allows US policymakers, America’s military, American companies, and American investors to adapt to changing circumstances, partner where necessary, and innovate at every opportunity. They must also do something that Americans don’t do often enough: Invest for the longer-term future. They must rebuild the nation’s strength from within so that America can afford to be indispensable for the post-G-Zero world.
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