Gary Shilling 2012 Investment Themes

In addition to writing his own weekly newsletter John Mauldin also creates an "Outside The Box" piece in which he features a guest author writing on a specific subject.  This past week he featured Gary Shilling's 2012 Investment Themes.  Gary Shilling is a noted analyst and author who makes frequently appearances in the various business media outlets.  He has a very solid track record in predicting economic trends and events.  Not everyone in this business will ever get every call write but those that hit 70% or more of the time make for a good follow.

Here is the link to the full article  but I have listed his 9 2012 Investment Themes below.  And just to be clear Mr. Shilling is definitely predicting a recession here in the US in 2012 and he is not alone


1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving
spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods
and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.
2. Financial deleveraging will reverse the trend that financed much global growth in
recent years.
3. Increased government regulation and involvement in major economies will stifle
innovation and reduce efficiency.
4. Low commodity prices will limit spending by commodity-producing lands.
5. Developed countries are moving toward fiscal restraint.
6. Rising protectionism will slow—even eliminate—global growth.
7. The housing market will be weak due to excess inventories and loss of investment
appeal.
8. Deflation will curtail spending as buyers anticipate lower prices.
9. State and local governments will contract.