Friday, November 16, 2012

Looked at one way, the fiscal cliff doesn't seem so horrific

When I read the headline in this WSJ article I had to do a double take and of course read on.  Could it be that going over the so called fiscal cliff could be a good thing?  The short answer is yes.

You see according to the Congressional Budget Office, although we would likely enter a recession in 2013 in the later years of the current decade growth is forecasted to rebound and our debt to GDP would improve dramatically.  This is a classic case of pay me now or pay me more later.

Or put another way, kicking the can down the road needs to stop at some point in time.
  • But sidestepping the cliff involves a trade-off: It results in debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP rising to nearly 90% in 2022 from 72% in 2012. Going off the cliff, on the other hand, results in debt declining to less than 60% of GDP in 2022.

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