Friday, August 3, 2012

Jobs report beats consensus, Unemployment rate ticks up

Payroll jobs in July increased 163,000, following gains of 64,000 in June (originally 80,000) and 87,000 in May (previous estimate of 77,000). The net revisions for May and June were down 6,000. The market consensus was for 100,000.

The unemployment rate ticked higher from 8.2% to 8.3%.

The market has rallied off of these numbers despite the chatter that some were hoping for a worse number that would support additional QE from the Fed.

We will likely see the market continue to rally today and finish positive.  However this is but one number and does not make a trend.  There is still considerably weakness out there so tread carefully.

Graph below from Barron's
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change80,000 64,000 100,000 70,000  to 165,000 163,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level8.2 %8.2 %8.1 % to 8.3 %8.3 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.3 %0.3 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.1 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.5 hrs
Private Payrolls - M/M change84,000 73,000 110,000 80,000  to 180,000 172,000 



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