Thursday, June 21, 2012

Drawing meaning from the Fed's fcast

So what did we learn yesterday from the Fed's forecast release of economic data.  Select here for the full release of the Fed's forecast.
  1. GDP was revised down from 2012 through 2014 vs. April's projection.  
  2. Unemployment was revised up from April's projection from 2012 through 2014
  3. Inflation projections were lowered vs. April for 2012 through 2014
So what does this mean?  Continued weakness and an economy that could e teetering on entering another recession.  Deflation still seems like the concern of the day vs. inflation although with the money printing that the US has done throughout the financial crisis many are still scared of rapid inflation.  

We've since increases in the prices of things that America use and buy the most.  Think education, gas, oil, and food.  Why I love the fact that the price of a Mac Air has not increased while gaining additional options or storage it doesn't help Americans fill their gas tanks.

Today we received further data that China is slowing with it's PMI reaching a 7 month low at 48.1.  Courtesy of Mish Shedlock see the chart below which supports a slowing Chinese economy.


With Europe in a recession and China slowing it is only a matter of time before it catches up to us in the US. Remember we are a more inter-connected world than most people think.  A decoupling strategy has not really worked in the past not do we believe that it will work in the future.

The importance of having an investor policy statement

Tadas Viskanta is the author and blogger of Abnormal Returns a site that I use on a weekly basis.  In this recent interview with Morningstar he points out some solid common sense investing points.

The most important point that Tadas makes is that individuals need and should have an investor policy statement or IPS for short.  This is a major focus for us at DWCM when working with clients.  We find that putting together this important document which lays out your investment pathway is a key driver to the overall success of clients achieving their financial and lifestyle goals.

Another point that we stress and is noted in the interview is to understand and know your investment strategy.  Although you may watch CNBC every day you don't necessarily want to be influenced by outside sources that would throw you off of your investment plan.  Remember tips are for waiters not for investing plans.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Fed Decision as Expected

Below is the full Press Release from the Fed from this afternoon's meeting.  As expected the Fed decided to continue "operation twist" in which they extend their length of maturities.  The impact of such Fed action including previous QE (quantitative easing) continues to punish savers.

Maintaining artificially low interest rates forces people to look for higher yields in riskier asset classes since savings accounts and CD's sport minuscule returns.

The equity markets seemed to like the action since they turned a negative 70 point loss into a slightly positive gain.  Talk is guaranteed to continue regarding a more robust QE 3 program.

Bernanke's press conference is still to come this afternoon so stay tuned as people will hand on his every comment.

Fed Press Release


Release Date: June 20, 2012

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately this year. However, growth in employment has slowed in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 

The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.

To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.

The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less. This continuation of the maturity extension program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed continuation of the maturity extension program.

Statement Regarding Continuation of the Maturity Extension Program Leaving the Board

 

Meet The League Of Extraordinary Women: 60 Influencers Who Are Changing The World

This is an inspiring piece from Fast Company.  These women are great role models not only for women but for men as well.

Click here for the full list of The League of Extraordinary Women

PHOTO BY MIKE MCGREGOR